Developers cannot evaluate startup equity offers because they don't understand dilution, liquidation preferences, or how to model realistic exit scenarios — leading them to either dismiss equity as worthless or fall for inflated claims.
Input your grant details (shares, strike price, vesting), company info (stage, valuation, funding rounds), and the tool models projected outcomes across exit scenarios using comparable acquisition/IPO data, showing dilution-adjusted payouts with probability ranges.
Freemium — free basic calculator, $10-20/mo pro tier with comparable exit database, scenario modeling, and offer-vs-offer comparison; B2B tier for recruiters/startups to generate transparent equity explainers
The pain is real but episodic — engineers feel it acutely during job searches (2-4 times in a career) and occasionally when funding rounds happen. The Reddit thread with 275 comments confirms strong emotional engagement. However, once someone accepts an offer, the pain largely goes dormant until an exit event. It's a 'sharp but infrequent' pain, not a daily burning problem.
Estimated 2-3M software engineers in the US receive equity compensation at startups. At any given time, roughly 15-20% are actively job-searching. That's ~400-600K potential active users per year. At $15/mo for the pro tier, theoretical TAM is ~$100M if you captured 10% of active job-seekers for 2 months each. Realistic SAM is probably $5-15M. Decent but not massive — this is a lifestyle business or a feature, not a unicorn.
This is the weakest link. Engineers are notoriously resistant to paying for tools, especially calculators. The free alternatives (TLDR Options, spreadsheet templates, back-of-napkin math) are 'good enough' for many. The $10-20/mo price point competes against free. The critical question: would someone pay $15/mo for a tool they use intensively for 2-3 weeks during a job search, then cancel? The B2B angle (recruiters/startups) has better WTP but requires a totally different sales motion.
Very buildable by a solo dev in 4-6 weeks. Core is a calculation engine (dilution math, waterfall analysis, preference stacking) which is well-documented financial math. The comparable exit database is the hardest part — requires scraping/aggregating Crunchbase, PitchBook-like data, or partnering with a data provider. MVP can launch with manually curated exit data for top 20 sectors. No ML required, no complex infrastructure. A React frontend with a solid calculation backend is sufficient.
This is where the idea shines. Nobody has built the 'TurboTax for startup equity evaluation' from the EMPLOYEE perspective. Carta serves companies. EquityZen serves investors. TLDR Options is a napkin calculator. The specific combination of dilution modeling + liquidation preference waterfall + comparable exit data + probability ranges does NOT exist as a consumer-facing product. The gap is clear and well-defined.
Brutal honesty: this is a usage-spike product, not a daily-use product. People need it during job searches and funding round announcements. Monthly churn would be extremely high — users would subscribe for 1-2 months, get their answer, and cancel. Annual subscription makes more sense but harder to sell for a calculator. The B2B recruiter tier has better recurring potential but is a different business. Portfolio tracking ('monitor your equity across all your startup stints') could improve retention but adds significant complexity.
- +Clear, validated pain point with strong emotional engagement (275 comments, direct quotes showing confusion and frustration)
- +Wide-open competitive gap — no one has built the employee-side 'equity truth calculator' with real modeling depth
- +Technically simple to build — a solo dev can ship MVP in 4-6 weeks with well-known financial math
- +Strong viral/organic distribution potential — this is exactly the kind of tool that gets shared on HN, Reddit, Blind, and in Slack groups when someone posts 'I got a startup offer, is the equity worth anything?'
- +B2B angle provides a higher-value monetization path if consumer WTP proves insufficient
- !High churn risk: users need this for 2-3 weeks during job search, then leave. Subscription model may not work; consider one-time purchase or per-analysis pricing instead
- !Comparable exit data is the moat but also the hardest and most expensive part to maintain — without it, you're just a prettier TLDR Options
- !Accuracy liability: if someone makes a job decision based on your projections and the outcome is wildly different, trust evaporates fast. Need strong disclaimers and probability ranges
- !Carta could build this as a feature tomorrow if the market proves out — they have all the cap table data already
- !Free alternatives may be 'good enough' for 80% of users, leaving only a niche willing to pay for depth
Free calculator that estimates what startup stock options could be worth at various exit valuations, factoring in strike price, share count, and basic dilution
Cap table management platform that gives employees a portal to view their equity grants, vesting schedules, and estimated values based on latest 409A valuation
Compensation comparison platforms where engineers share total comp including equity. Blind has extensive discussion threads about equity valuation at specific companies
Secondary market platforms for buying/selling pre-IPO shares. Provide implied valuations based on actual secondary transactions
Financial planning platforms specifically for startup employees. Help with stock option exercise financing, tax planning, and equity optimization
Week 1-2: Build the core equity calculator — input shares, strike price, vesting schedule, company valuation, funding rounds with preference terms. Output a dilution-adjusted waterfall showing your payout at 3-5 exit valuations (acqui-hire, modest exit, good exit, unicorn exit, mega exit). Week 3-4: Add 50-100 manually curated comparable exits by sector and stage. Show 'companies like yours that exited typically returned X-Y for employees with similar grants.' Week 5-6: Add offer comparison (side-by-side two offers with different equity/cash splits). Launch on Hacker News, r/cscareerquestions, and Blind. Skip the B2B tier entirely for MVP — validate consumer demand first.
Free tier: basic calculator with 1 scenario, no comparables, no save. $19 one-time 'deep analysis' (not monthly — match the usage pattern): full dilution waterfall, comparable exits, probability ranges, PDF export for 1 company analysis. $49 'job search pass' (30-day access): unlimited analyses, offer-vs-offer comparison, save and revisit scenarios. Later B2B: $200-500/mo for recruiters to generate branded equity explainers they share with candidates. This is where real recurring revenue lives.
4-6 weeks to MVP launch. First revenue within 1-2 weeks of launch IF you nail the HN/Reddit launch and have a one-time purchase option (lower friction than subscription). Meaningful revenue ($1K+ MRR) likely takes 2-3 months of iteration on pricing and distribution. The key accelerant is getting embedded in the 'I got a startup offer' conversation loop on Blind, Reddit, and Twitter.
- “I don't really understand the numbers of how that could possibly be the case”
- “usually view the equity as paper money”
- “It's all paper until an exit”
- “Each series of funding generally dilutes the amount of shares — so it really depends”
- “it's going to be so dependent on the specific situation that it's impossible to say”